Futures are carrying the move
Bitcoin is showing a split message right now. Futures activity is climbing, but spot demand is still negative, which means the latest price action is being pushed more by speculation than by direct buying.
On-chain analyst Ki Young Ju said the rise in futures open interest matters because it can lift price in the short term, but it does not by itself create a durable advance. He noted that a lasting rally usually needs both futures and spot demand to improve at the same time.
- Futures open interest is rising, which points to stronger leveraged positioning.
- Spot demand remains net negative, showing weaker direct buying.
- A futures-led move can fade quickly if traders unwind positions.
- April is a useful warning, since a similar setup lost momentum when spot buying did not follow through.
This leaves Bitcoin in a fragile spot. Price can still extend higher if leveraged traders keep pressing, but the move may lack staying power unless real buyers return to the market.
A bottom signal is still in play
Not every signal is pointing lower. Analyst CW8900 identified a second early bull signal on Bitcoin’s chart, and that has led some traders to believe the market may be carving out a bottom.
The idea is based on cycle behaviour. In this view, the first early bull signal can still be followed by more downside, while the second signal tends to appear closer to the end of the decline and the start of a new upward phase.
Two details support that interpretation:
- The previous rally did not reach an overheated bull stage, so there may have been less excess to unwind.
- The bear phase was relatively brief, which could mean selling pressure was absorbed faster than expected.
That does not guarantee a breakout. It only suggests that the market may be closer to a turning point than a deeper breakdown. For the signal to matter, spot buyers still need to step in with conviction.
Large treasury moves are drawing attention
Another factor is adding pressure to the conversation. Lookonchain reported that two major Bitcoin treasury holders recently shifted sizeable amounts of BTC.
The transfers were:
- Metaplanet: 1,473 BTC, worth about $93.82 million
- Hut 8: 493 BTC, worth about $31.36 million
Those moves matter because large treasury transfers often trigger market speculation. Still, a transfer is not the same as a sale. The available data does not show that either company sold into the open market.
If the coins were eventually sold, the extra supply could weigh on price. If the transfers were only internal or related to custody changes, the market impact could be limited.
What traders should watch next
The setup now comes down to three questions:
- Will futures strength continue without a sharp unwind?
- Will spot demand finally turn positive?
- Do the treasury transfers lead to real selling, or just internal movement?
For now, Bitcoin looks caught between two stories. One says the market is still too dependent on use. The other says the chart is showing an early base that could turn into a bottom.
The deciding factor is likely to be spot demand. If buyers return with enough force, the bullish signal may matter. If they do not, the current move may remain vulnerable despite the encouraging technical setup.
